Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.052747 0.059923 0.067948 0.077630 0.089051 0.102164 0.118457
2026-01-25 0.042007 0.050893 0.061654 0.075792 0.094097 0.117302 0.149440
2026-02-01 0.033666 0.043016 0.055119 0.072235 0.096309 0.129735 0.181079
2026-02-08 0.028714 0.038546 0.052102 0.072684 0.104115 0.152028 0.234211
2026-02-15 0.024794 0.034812 0.049445 0.073201 0.112491 0.178238 0.304718
2026-02-22 0.021863 0.032010 0.047664 0.074777 0.123309 0.212674 0.407001
2026-03-01 0.019372 0.029465 0.045840 0.075986 0.134239 0.252243 0.543817
2026-03-08 0.016885 0.026534 0.042883 0.074644 0.140405 0.285998 0.693316
2026-03-15 0.014315 0.023081 0.038454 0.069646 0.138014 0.301224 0.810720
2026-03-22 0.012916 0.021441 0.036995 0.070185 0.148021 0.351716 1.082800
2026-03-29 0.011907 0.020347 0.036365 0.072355 0.162929 0.424633 1.524855
2026-04-05 0.010866 0.019042 0.035107 0.072899 0.174338 0.496087 2.078911
2026-04-12 0.009916 0.017801 0.033826 0.073264 0.186193 0.580713 2.885865
2026-04-19 0.008924 0.016345 0.031853 0.071512 0.191596 0.648804 3.790154
2026-04-26 0.007953 0.014807 0.029466 0.068166 0.191035 0.695229 4.714317
2026-05-03 0.007361 0.013981 0.028548 0.068558 0.203427 0.813479 6.781888
2026-05-10 0.006842 0.013244 0.027716 0.069019 0.216714 0.954436 9.981981
2026-05-17 0.006434 0.012696 0.027250 0.070467 0.234962 1.150758 15.757770
2026-05-24 0.006051 0.012154 0.026708 0.071576 0.252932 1.377951 25.327522
2026-05-31 0.005598 0.011400 0.025513 0.070316 0.260291 1.548491 37.078357
2026-06-07 0.005048 0.010362 0.023436 0.065658 0.249825 1.567715 44.538193
2026-06-14 0.004766 0.009927 0.022900 0.066152 0.265185 1.846408 75.127198
2026-06-21 0.004567 0.009667 0.022793 0.068163 0.290181 2.288026 151.004798